Consumer outlook for 2016 is favorable: U-M Surveys of Consumers

November 23, 2015

University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers logoANN ARBOR—Consumer spending will advance by nearly 3 percent during 2016, according to economist Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Curtin presented his annual forecast of consumer spending on November 19 at the annual U-M Economic Outlook Conference.

“Growth in consumer spending will be higher in 2015 and 2016 than in any prior year since 2006,” said Curtin. “Perhaps more importantly, by the end of 2016, the current expansion will have lasted seven and a half years, and be the fourth longest expansion during the past 150 years.”

Read his full report (pdf).

Conducted by the U-M Institute for Social Research (ISR) since 1946, the Surveys monitor consumer attitudes and expectations. The data are available non-exclusively via Bloomberg.

The Survey of Consumers is a rotating panel survey based on a nationally representative sample that gives each household in the coterminous U.S. an equal probability of being selected. Interviews are conducted throughout the month by telephone. The minimum monthly change required for significance at the 95 percent level in the Sentiment Index is 4.8 points; for Current and Expectations Indices the minimum is 6.0 points.

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