Matthew D. Shapiro
Director, SRC
Research Professor, SRC-HRS
Professor, Economics
- shapiro@umich.edu
- 734-763-4143
- 3474 ISR-Thompson
- CV (PDF)
- Google Scholar Profile
BIO
Dr. Shapiro's research interests include investment and capital utilization, business-cycle fluctuations, consumption and saving, financial markets, fiscal policy, monetary policy, time-series econometrics, economics of aging, economic measurement, and survey methodology. Among his current research interests are modeling saving, retirement, health, insurance, and portfolio choices of older Americans; using surveys to address questions in macroeconomics and individual decisionmaking; modeling how changes in tax policy affect consumption, investment, employment, and output; improving the quality of national economic statistics; and using naturally-occurring data such as account records and social media to measure and understand economic activity.
- Weinberg, Daniel H., Margaret C. Levenstein, Matthew D. Shapiro, John M. Abowd, Robert F. Belli, Noel Cressie, David C. Folch, Scott H. Holan, et al. Forthcoming. "Effects of a Government-Academic Partnership: Has the NSF-Census Bureau Research Network Helped Improve the US Statistical System?" Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology
- Ameriks, John, Gabor Kezdi, Minjoon Lee, and Matthew D. Shapiro. Forthcoming. "Heterogeneity in Expectations, Risk Tolerance, and Household Stock Shares: The Attenuation Puzzle." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
- Flaaen, Aaron, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Isaac Sorkin. 2019. "Reconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements: Firm versus Worker Perspective." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11(2): 193-227.
- Hemphill, Libby Marie, and Matthew D. Shapiro. 2019. "Appealing to the base or to the moveable middle? Incumbents' partisan messaging before the 2016 U.S. congressional elections." Journal of Information Technology & Politics 16(4): 325-341.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., and Libby Marie Hemphill. 2017. "Politicians and the Policy Agenda: Does Use of Twitter by the U.S. Congress Direct New York Times Content?" Policy & Internet 9(1): 109-132.
- Gelman, M., S. Kariv, Matthew D. Shapiro, Daniel S. Silverman, and S. Tadelis. 2014. "Microeconomics. Harnessing naturally occurring data to measure the response of spending to income." Science (New York, N.Y.) 345(6193): 212-215.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., Libby Marie Hemphill, Jahna Otterbacher, and Han Woo Park. 2014. "Twitter and Political Communication in Korea: Are Members of the Assembly Doing What They Say?" Journal of Asia Pacific Studies 3(3): 338-357.
- Dominguez, Kathryn, and Matthew D. Shapiro. 2013. "Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?" American Economic Review 103(3): 147-52.
- Elsby, Michael W. L., and Matthew D. Shapiro. 2012. "Why Does Trend Growth Affect Equilibrium Employment? A New Explanation of an Old Puzzle." American Economic Review 102(4): 1378-1413.
- Sahm, Claudia R., Matthew D. Shapiro, and Joel Slemrod. 2012. "Check in the Mail or More in the Paycheck: Does the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Depend on How It Is Delivered?" American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 4(3): 216-250.
- Sahm, C. R., Matthew D. Shapiro, and J. Slemrod. 2010. "Household response to the 2008 tax rebate: Survey evidence and aggregate implications." Tax Policy and the Economy 24: 69-110.
- Sahm, Claudia R., Matthew D. Shapiro, and Joel Slemrod. 2010. "Household Response to the 2008 Tax Rebate: Survey Evidence and Aggregate Implications." Pp. 69-110 in Tax Policy and the Economy. Vol. 24., edited by Jeffery R. Brown. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
- Kimball, Miles S., Claudia R. Sahm, and Matthew D. Shapiro. 2009. "Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation." American Economic Review 99(2): 363-68.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2009. "Taxes and business investment: Lessons from the past decade, Discussion." in Tax policy lessons from the 2000s, edited by Viard, Alan D. Washington, D.C: AEI Press.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., and J. Slemrod. 2009. "Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?" American Economic Review 99(2): 374-379.
- House, Christopher L., and Matthew D. Shapiro. 2008. "Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation." American Economic Review 98(3): 737-768.
- Kimball, Miles S., C. Sahm, and Matthew D. Shapiro. 2008. "Imputing Risk Tolerance From Survey Responses." Journal of the American Statistical Association 103(483): 1028-1038.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., Michael Geske, and Valerie A. Ramey. 2007. "Why Do Computers Depreciate?" in Hard-to-Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Memory of Zvi Griliches, edited by Berndt, Ernst R., Hulten, Charles M. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., and Yuriy Gorodnichenko. 2007. "Monetary Policy When Potential Output Is Uncertain: Understanding the Growth Gamble of the 1990s." Journal of Monetary Economics 54(4): 1132-1162.
- House, Christopher L., and Matthew D. Shapiro. 2006. "Phased-in tax cuts and economic activity." American Economic Review 96(5): 1835-1849.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2005. "Comments on 'Index number theory using differences rather than ratios'." American Journal of Economics and Sociology 64 (1) : 361-366.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2005. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates: Comment." Pp. 148-156 in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, edited by Gertler, Mark, Rogoff, Kenneth. Cambridge and London: MIT Press, 2005.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2005. "Comment on W. Erwin Diewert's, "Index Number Theory Using Differences Rather Than Ratios"." Pp. 361-366 in Celebrating Irving Fisher: The Legacy of a Great Economist, edited by Dimand, Robert W., Geanakoplos, John. Malden, Mass. and Oxford: Blackwell.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2003. "Scanner Data and Price Indexes." Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., and Robert C. Feenstra. 2003. "High-Frequency Substitution and the Measurement of Price Indexes." Pp. 381-396 in Scanner Data and Price Indexes, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., and Joel Slemrod. 2003. "Consumer response to tax rebates." American Economic Review 93(1): 381-396.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., and Joel Slemrod. 2003. "Did the 2001 Tax Rebate Stimulate Spending? Evidence From Taxpayer Surveys." Tax Policy and the Economy 17.
- Traugott, Michael W., F. Thomas Juster, Martha Scott Hill, Robert M. Groves, Beth-Ellen Pennell, David Featherman, Donald R. Kinder, David R. Weir, et al. 2002. "How Americans Responded: A Study of Public Reactions to 9/11/01." PS-Political Science & Politics 35(3): 511-516.
- Ramey, Valerie A., and Matthew D. Shapiro. 2001. "Displaced capital: a study of aerospace plant closings." Journal of Political Economy 109(5): 958-992.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2001. "Measuring the Value of Cataract Surgery, with Irving Shapiro and David W. Wilcox." in Medical Care Output and Productivity, edited by Cutler, David M., Berndt, Ernst R. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., Susanto Basu, and John G. Fernald. 2001. "Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?" Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 55(1): 117-165.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., and Rebecca M. Blank. 2001. "Labor and the Sustainability of Output and Productivity Growth." in The Roaring Nineties: Can Full Employment Be Sustained?, edited by Krueger, Alan B., Solow, Robert M. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 2000. "Social Security Reform and National Saving in an Era of Budget Surpluses: Comment." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2000(2): 1-71.
- Shapiro, Irving, Matthew D. Shapiro, and David W. Wilcox. 1999. "Quality Improvement in Health Care: A Framework for Price and Output Measurement." American Economic Review 89(2): 333-337.
- Ramey, Valerie A., and Matthew D. Shapiro. 1998. "Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending." Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 48(0): 145-194.
- Barsky, Robert B., F. Thomas Juster, Miles S. Kimball, and Matthew D. Shapiro. 1997. "Preference parameters and behavioral heterogeneity: An experimental approach in the health and retirement study." The Quarterly Journal of Economics 112(2): 537.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1997. "Do "Shortages" Cause Inflation? Comment." Pp. 301-304 in Reducing inflation: Motivation and strategy, edited by Romer, Christina D., Romer, David H. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., and David W. Wilcox. 1997. "Alternative Strategies for Aggregating Prices in the CPI." Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review 79(3): 113-125.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1996. "Macroeconomic Implications of Variation in the Workweek of Capital." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 0(2): 79-119.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., and David W. Wilcox. 1996. "Mismeasurement in the Consumer Price Index: An Evaluation." Pp. 93-142 in NBER macroeconomics annual 1996, edited by Bernanke, Ben S., Rotemberg, Julio J. Cambridge and London: MIT Press.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., and Joel Slemrod. 1995. "Consumer Response to the Timing of Income: Evidence from a Change in Tax Withholding." American Economic Review 85(1): 274-283.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1994. "Federal Reserve Policy: Cause and Effect." Pp. 307-332 in Monetary policy. Studies in Business Cycles, edited by Mankiw, N. Gregory. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1994. "Productivity and Real Wages: Is There a Puzzle? Comments." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 0(1): 336-341.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1993. "Cyclical Productivity and the Workweek of Capital." American Economic Review 83(2): 229-233.
- Brainard, William C., Matthew D. Shapiro, and John B. Shoven. 1991. "Fundamental Value and Market Value." Pp. 277-307 in Money, macroeconomics, and economic policy: Essays in honor of James Tobin., edited by Brainard, William C., Nordhaus, William D., Watts, Harold W. Cambridge and London: MIT Press.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory, David H. Romer, and Matthew D. Shapiro. 1991. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal." Review of Economic Studies 58(3): 455-477.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow: Comments." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 0(2): 203-208.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1989. "Inventories, Orders, Temporary and Permanent Layoffs: An Econometric Analysis: Comment." Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 30(0): 367-373.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1989. "Assessing the Federal Reserve's Measures of Capacity and Utilization." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 0(1): 181-225.
- Dominguez, Kathryn M., Ray C. Fair, and Matthew D. Shapiro. 1988. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale." American Economic Review 78(4): 595-612.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1988. "The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Marke t." American Economic Review 78(5): 1067-1079.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1988. "Political vs. Currency Premia in International Real Interest Rate Differentials: Comments." European Economic Review 32(5): 1114-1118.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1987. "Are Cyclical Fluctuation in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks or Demand Shocks?" American Economic Review 77(2): 118-124.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory, and Matthew D. Shapiro. 1986. "News or Noise: An Analysis of GNP Revisions." Survey of Current Business 66(5): 20-25.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory, and Matthew D. Shapiro. 1986. "Risk and Return: Consumption Beta versus Market Beta." Review of Economics and Statistics 68(3): 452-459.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1986. "Capital Utilization and Capital Accumulation: Theory and Evidence." Journal of Applied Econometrics 1(3): 211-234.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1986. "Capital and Saving in a Share Economy." Journal of Comparative Economics 10(4): 444-447.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1986. "The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor." Quarterly Journal of Economics 101(3): 513-542.
- Shapiro, Matthew D. 1986. "Investment, Output, and the Cost of Capital." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 0(1): 111-152.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory, David H. Romer, and Matthew D. Shapiro. 1985. "An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility." Journal of Finance 40(3): 677-687.
- Shapiro, Matthew D., and N. Gregory Mankiw. 1985. "Trends, Random Walks, and Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis." Journal of Monetary Economics 40(September): 165-174.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory, David E. Runkle, and Matthew D. Shapiro. 1984. "Are Preliminary Announcements of the Money Stock Rational Forecasts?" Journal of Monetary Economics 14(1): 15-27.
- The Shutdown: Economic Impact on Small Businesses
- 'We're Flying Blind.' The Shutdown Is Making it Harder for Economists to Understand the Shutdown
- 'We'll Have No Other Option Than Declaring Bankruptcy.' How the Shutdown Could Impact Government Workers for Months
- The Chart That Shows the Financial Peril Facing Many Federal Workers
- Shapiro says Americans' low spending reflects "cruel lesson" about the dangers of debt
- Shapiro says Twitter-based employment index provides real-time accuracy
- Shapiro says Americans' seemingly volatile spending pattern linked to 'sensible cash management'
- Shapiro comments of the value of Twitter data for gauging unemployment
